Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Mathematical modeling of serial killer murders

Two separate readers sent me links here and here to the recent announcement of a mathematical model looking at the behavior of serial killers:

Mikhail Simkin and Vwani Roychowdhury analyzed the pattern of a serial killer, Ukrainian-born Andrei Chikatilo, and found that it correlated with their predicted pattern of neuronal firing in the brain.

In the 1990s, Chikatilo confessed to the murder of 56 people over 12 years. (He was executed in 1994.) When charted on a timeline, the murders seem to follow a pattern known in mathematical terms as a "Devil's staircase."

The intervals between the murders follow a power law, with the killer seemingly commiting murder when the neuronal excitation in his brain exceeds a certain threshold, the researchers hypothesize.

"We cannot expect that the killer commits murder right at the moment when neural excitation reaches a certain threshold," they write. "He needs time to plan and prepare his crime. So we assume that he commits murder after the neural excitation was over threshold for [a] certain period. ... Another assumption that we make is that a murder exercises a sedative effect on the killer, causing neural excitation to fall below the threshold."

In other words, a new murder would be more likely than the average murder rate immediately after a killing, and less likely than the average when time has passed, according to the analysis.

Isn't the world full of wonderful things?  I have always felt that there could be very simple, elegant explanations to everything -- even something as complicated as human behavior.  I can't wait until Google is able to model everyone's mind and mob mentality and then we can truly understand everything there is to know about human nature.

84 comments:

  1. http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/944/Celebrities/article/detail/1401256/2012/02/28/Zwanger-model-naakt-op-de-catwalk-om-rekeningen-te-kunnen-betalen.dhtml

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  2. http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/944/Celebrities/article/detail/1401256/2012/02/28/Zwanger-model-naakt-op-de-catwalk-om-rekeningen-te-kunnen-betalen.dhtml

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  3. Replies
    1. TCO You are number one because you have the most capitals in your name :)

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    2. Anon's... what doesn't count? His shoes? Also: it's "Anon's X doesn't count." Not "don't".

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  4. Michael Martin PlunkettFebruary 29, 2012 at 2:41 AM

    i dont get how that study wuld help any 1 catch any 1 even if its true its a waste of time good to know my tax money is put in the good use

    ReplyDelete
  5. Michael Martin PlunkettFebruary 29, 2012 at 3:00 AM

    nobody has ever catched a serial killer because of some profile they get caught because they get sloppy or unlucky some are sloppy and hap hazardous from the start and still manage to operate for years some never get caught because they just get lucky

    in the mean while the fbi coppers pour money for profilers fortune tellers and claire voyants just so they can say the public every thing is being done while they know theres nothing they can do but wait for the luck to run out from the killer

    in the area of the killings there are typically thousands who fit the profile perfectly and the killer when caught often doesnt even fit the profile very well the whole profiling thing is a scam

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    Replies
    1. you give your word 'sloppy' a whole new meaning as it follows your 'catched' one minute and 'caught' another. lol.

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  6. Everyone's an expert

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  7. i was once mistaken for a serial rapist/killer and interrogated by the police they were very in terested after 2 min of talking (didnt now i was a sociopath than but they kinda knew somthing was wrong)

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  8. they now have my dna and i'm problebe on some list of bad ppl lol

    ReplyDelete
  9. Police are stupid fucks. I had a 42 year old nurse with a infantry background call me on my PD on a blind date. After 35min into the date, she dropped the hammer. Was very interesting, she had me dead to rights.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. She worked in the maternity ward?

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    2. That wasn't me. WHY do I get all the stalkers?

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    3. I am a constant source of PLEASURE lol. I must be addictive.

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    4. EDEN???????????????????????????

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  10. Theme Song for Alteregos Christian girlfriend

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  11. Serial killers aren't IQ smart, typically, they are street smart and intellectually shallow. They realize that substance isn't important, if you look like something, people will judge you on the appearance you have at that time. That's why serial killers are successful, they are smooth talkers and completely normal, seemingly. Plus, they are chronic liars from childhood.

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  12. *I* believe that if some people adopt a Buddhist philosophy *they* can sort of become a jaded a person. Why would that happen?

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    Replies
    1. Many serial killers are Buddhists, Caroline.

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    2. Well, then the people you are talking about don't really understand Buddhism at all.

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    3. Those people were probably already jaded in some way, and are using Buddhism to justify it and give them permission to stop hiding their jadedness by calling their jadedness "Buddhism".

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    4. Why does everyone like to pretend they are the real genuine Caroline? I feel like Frank.

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    5. Anyone call me?

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  13. i had an ex that was a psychiatric nurs i told here (after) i'm a socopath she did the recerch en denfendly recognized a lot of the techniques but didn't believe me
    (it's funny they always think a sociopath is a serial killer)

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  14. next i wanne date a cop hehe

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  15. What happens when sociopaths get mocked? Do they always use violence or do they ignore it?

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    Replies
    1. Ignore, store and file away for future reasons to be an asshole.

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    2. ... And when future reasons become present opportunities, out come the stored nuggets, which are doled out with a generous helping of astute contempt. Intellectual hardware permitting.
      :)

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    3. Give an example of an adult mocking. Most people will look at the mocker and figure out where they are coming from. It's usually from an insecure place. But I'm being general. Your questions are always too vague.

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    4. Please give an example of this, Alter? :)

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  16. is it your experience where socio bf's tend to say 'call me' as opposed to call themselves?

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    Replies
    1. People with low self esteem might do that. My esteem sucks. I put it out there that I don't need anyone. Then I put on a sad face and say I'm sensitive. I want people to flock TO me, not ME get off the COUCH. That way I KNOW they really want to be with Me. Me Me ME.

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    2. But women want YOU to come to THEM. That is why we all think you guys are faggots.

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    3. You are speaking of the narc peons.

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    4. "Call me" is like saying well, it's their decision to want me. Like, in the end they will say if i am such an asshole, than why did you call?

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    5. That must be why I do not call the men I've dated. They are all assholes.

      *bows and curtsies*

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  17. i usualy laugh in there face
    (actualy i do that a lot)

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  18. Why do people rule out the possibility of demon
    possession in sp killers? I for one think this
    is the case.

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    Replies
    1. Michael Martin PlunkettMarch 1, 2012 at 2:56 AM

      the booze made me do it the demon in the bottle

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  19. I know I'm going to get slapped on my post but
    I think sociopaths are evil and have allowed
    themselves to become evil because of their choices. Just as good people make good choices
    for themselves and others - they become better
    people; but those that hurt and destroy others
    become evil. Sorry, sociopaths!

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  20. What precludes someone with a personality disorder from making good choices? M.E speaks of wanting to show kindness to others, and has mentioned that his faith serves as a prosthetic moral compass, to this effect. Is he evil?

    Am I?

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  21. Everyone is evil as it is within the human being. The Bible says "The human heart is wicked. Who can know it?"

    ReplyDelete
  22. There is no such thing as a "good person" The Bible does not allow for any man to be good. "There is none good, not one"

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  23. Precisely, MoniCaroFrankurtErin. Or Ami. Whatever. God accepts us on the basis of His righteousness, not our own. That is why we have no business judging others.

    Every person encompasses within himself the capacity for good and evil. Sociopaths are not, by definition or nature, more vile than their empathetic counterparts. Traits specific to the sociopathic personality fall along a spectrum, manifesting themselves within the context of particular behavioural patterns. Even if the core attributes of one's personality remain stable, it is always possible to modify one's actions. This is true for sociopaths and empaths alike.

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  24. I am Bible Anon Alterego. I have treated you with respect.I expect you to do the same or I will not engage with you anymore.

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  25. You write so nicely, AE.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you, anon.

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    2. ^^That wasn't me. I thanked you in the comment below, which I evidently posted in the wrong place. Again. :)

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  26. That's your choice Bible Anon. I share your faith, but not your propensity to dilute yourself among a plethora of fake characters. In my view, this tendency underscores and embodies your impotence.

    I don't dislike you, and I accept you as my sister in Christ. But if you want my respect, you'll have to grow a set of balls, and earn it. ;)

    And thanks, Anon. Glad you think so.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oh shut the fuck up.

      As flawed as MoniCaroFrankurtErinBibleEtc is, at least her faith is sincere and not so flagrantly ego-based.

      She gets it. You don't.

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    2. And what makes you think you know the first thing about what I genuinely believe, Medusa? You have stated that you do not even read my posts, so how might you be qualified to comment meaningfully on the subject of my faith? Are you claiming to be psychic now, too?

      Delete
    3. Yeah, stop stretching the truth. I said I refused to read that one vomit post of yours. I still haven't.

      How would I know to stop reading your posts (mostly the long ones, I learned that they aren't worth it) if I haven't already experienced them before?

      Delete
    4. Blasts from the Past
      Theme song for the Anons

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    5. how did frankfurt f get in the fray

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    6. If you've stopped reading them, cease commenting on them. You only make yourself look foolish.

      Kind of like those dull, 5-paragraph rants concerning your slippers.

      Fail, again. :)

      It's getting to be a theme with you, eh gorgonzola?

      Delete
    7. Can you read? I never said I 'stopped reading' your comments, I said I refuse to read the long self-indulgent ones because it's just not an economical use of time.

      I post the housemate stories because people asked to hear them, and there are many who said enjoy the stories. I don't just offer up unsolicited boring stories, especially about ME ME ME ME ME.

      You are the only one who has complained about them (I can't say as much for yours), and the fact that you decided not to say anything about it until just now tells me you are trying really really hard to pull stuff from a desperate whatever.

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    8. I don't just offer up unsolicited boring stories, especially about ME ME ME ME ME.

      Yes you do. You certainly have in the past. You also offer the same antisocial banter. Blah blah blah.

      Here is some constructive criticism. I have noticed that you have a habit of reflecting a skewered version of what a person says to you, back at them, in an attempt to manipulate what they say into the "reality" you wish to project. Be aware that this is a tactic you employ which can be transparent at times.

      I never "complained" about your housemate stories; I don't actually care what you do or don't post. I implied that you are one to talk re: boring stories. Your need to complicate a simple comeback, coupled with your overly defensive response to it, shows blood- as did the fact that you immediately defended yourself zealously when I accused you of licking Kannit's ass.

      Can I ask you a forthright question? Does this kind of banter actually make you irate? I am genuinely interested in your emotional state as you click-clack away into the night, lol!

      I'll be frank. The stories I tell are kind of addressed to M.E. :) I am not "fronting", I am simply offering what I have to give, right now. They are for others, as well, who might come stumbling in here looking for answers, or for ways in which they can relate.

      As you are well aware, the number of readers far exceeds the number posters on this blog. Who is to say that something you or I say, will not impact someone else for their betterment?

      I genuinely wish for this to be the case with my words, so I should not be playing this game here. (If that makes me "not a sociopath", then I will happily rescind the label, lol! I took some good advice from Ukan: PCL-R score of 30, or not a sociopath!) :)

      What can I say? This climate makes me wanna spar.

      But I have to put an end to it, eventually.

      Delete
  27. Thank Goodness I don't answer to a rude creature like you Alterego.

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  28. My balls are I walk away from people who act like a horses ass like you.

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  29. There ya go. A veritable minefield of Monicas. How is my pointing out the obvious rude? Struck a nerve, did I?

    What'S wrong? Am I not acting enough like your idealized sociopathic girlfriend. Get real, Erin.

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  30. It is very simple Alterego I don't get treated badly by people and still engage with them. Is that too difficult for you to fathom?

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    Replies
    1. Hmm... you are still engaging, though.

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    2. And *you* still haven't explained how my exposing the truth squares with treating you badly, Erin.

      Delete
  31. christians fighting on a sociopath blog. shouldn't y'all be forgiving each other ? GOD is watching.

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    Replies
    1. Though I suspect that comment was facetious, you have a point. Except that I don't actually feel animosity towards anyone here, and I certainly don't take any of these "attacks" personally. Unfortunately, I'm having a grand ol' time.

      Still. I am sorry if I hurt your feelings, Erin.
      Thanks for the reminder, Zoe. I will cease and desist now.

      Delete
    2. I certainly don't take any of these "attacks" personally. Unfortunately, I'm having a grand ol' time.

      LOL. The fronting... it's just... sad, really.

      Delete
    3. Alterego Über EmpathFebruary 29, 2012 at 9:34 PM

      Sigh. Ooh Erin. How fickle is your loyalty!

      lol

      Delete
    4. @Medusa: I just meant that there is nothing to forgive if no real harm is done... Right? Or is that just a rationalization?

      But Monica is an empath.

      Sorry, empath.

      Delete
  32. is alterego sociopath? i thought her husband is, but given she also is into women (no sense of strong self) she could be sociopath. she writes well, but at times sounds like a beeper, and what's with her christianity, another loose self thing? is she a mother too?

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    Replies
    1. Maybe her "self" is so fluid, she morph from one slightly different pd to another, depending on the climate. I mean, let's face it, there are benefits to them all. Why not be convenient about it?

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  33. yes they have and it feels great

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