Trust as Explained by Game Theory

This was an interesting page/exercise sent to me via Twitter applying the concepts of game theory to the generation and maintenance of trust.

People no longer trust each other. Why? And how can we fix it? An interactive guide to the game theory of trust: http://ncase.me/trust/

It takes like 20-30 minutes to complete. At first I was turned off a little by the arbitrary constraints of the game, but they end up dealing with that issue later on -- so patience pays off! I've seen these models before, but it was interesting to apply it more directly to trust. Also, I hadn't seen the addition of mistakes/misunderstandings into the model before too. That has already changed the way I view others and the world. For instance (this might not make sense until you do the exercise), a friend of mine recently had an Amazon package fail to be delivered. She assumed that it was some shady neighbors stealing the package and was going to stop having any packages delivered, even though she has had like 20 successful package deliveries so far. I encouraged her to keep trying until she has another package go missing, just in case there was a mistake or other one off occurrence that shouldn't necessarily change her game playing strategy. It's a risky strategy maybe, but in her case she has no other convenient alternative for package delivery.

Without really remembering, I had applied essentially the "Diamond Rule" to this game. I think this worked ok (and probably works better with actual people than bots?), but it is true that in a situation in which there is a mistake, it can also compound a mistake into a global loss.

There's that phrase "fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame on me". But this game suggests a more optimal rule, when mistakes are factored in: "Fool me once, ok, I take it on the chin. Fool me twice, shame on you with punishment."

Single-minded focus

A reader asked what to do with someone on the board of directors of her company (for which she is an executive director) that hired her just because he thought she would be easier to control than the previous executive director. When she resisted his encroachment into her stewardship, he has become increasingly aggressive and nasty.

She asked for advice, and I feel like my advice on these types of issues is a little different than it has been before, so I thought I would share (my current thoughts in brackets):

Ok, a couple of thoughts. First, I think you're right that you shouldn't get down in the muck with him. It's actually probably what he wants from you -- to have you play by his rules. [This reminds of mixed martial arts, actually, with your opponent always wanting you to play the particular style that he is most comfortable with, and vice versa.]

Second, I think that the best thing you could do along with any actual day to day things that you do or interactions you have with him is to make sure that none of what is happening is interfering with the way you conceive of yourself or define yourself in any way. My therapist would call this taking "identity hits." I'll give you a quick example of what I mean. A lawyer friend was telling me about how her colleague at a very adversarial deposition tried to be friendly with the opposing attorney during a break by asking him if he had any kids. The opposing attorney sneered at him, as if to say -- I know what you're doing, playing this game of let's be friend -- "yeah, I have kids, two of them, and then went back to his phone." Somehow, this objectively small interaction made her colleague feel very small, made him doubt his own self-conception of himself as a "nice guy", and someone who people respect sort of as a matter of course. He should have no access to tinker around with those areas of your identity and self-conception, which is your job to keep them safer and more tucked away than you'd keep your passport. [This is not something that sociopaths have to worry about because they don't really associate with their sense of self in this very personal way that non personality-disordered individuals seem to. But having recently gotten more in touch with my sense of identity, I now understand how debilitating these identity hits can be -- or at the very least, they will distract you and impede your performance in a fight.]

Third, you need to be an immovable force to survive and thrive in this type of caustic situation. [Again, sociopaths naturally do this third thing because they have a big obsessive streak and they are capable of hyperfocus, or in this case a single-minded focus on getting one over on other people. I think this is hugely advantageous for reasons I explain later. The rest of the advice is to non-sociopathic people who might not naturally come by this single-minded focus, particularly not for something as potentially boring and fungible as their job.] A lot of religious people get this immovable force assurance from the sense that they are doing God's will. I think you're religious? Maybe you could contemplate or pray what it is that God would have you do in your particular situations, and then act with the confidence that what you are doing is approved of by God. Addicts in 12 step programs submit to their higher power (often as relayed through their sponsor). But their program requires them to make that choice and accept the consequences willingly and happily, the same way that martyrs are happy to die for their cause. Single-minded focus is a win-win approach because you have (1) the confidence and self-assurance that is usually required of high performance and (2) the spiritual or emotional robustness to weather small setbacks without counterproductive self-doubt. [Of course the risk is that your single-minded focus results in a Gallipoli, so be sure to pick your battles wisely before going all in, but do prepared to commit to all in if you get even a hint of your opponent being willing to do so.] There are other ways you can get to being an unmovable force (an incredible sense of personal integrity is probably the other major one or an overwhelming passion). You need to get to the point where you feel like you're not even choosing these choices so much as you are being swept up in something greater than yourself, otherwise you'll probably get cold feet at some point. [It's like they say about athletes, you have to get into the flow where you're not even thinking about your next move, it's just a natural extension of who you are.] The truth is that the actual decisions to be made are so complicated that you can't rationalize to the right answer, likely, and definitely not under time and stress conditions, and if you try you're just going to spend a ton of emotional energy in expecting things of yourself that you have no right to expect [and no adequate skillset to back up]. 

Rope-a-Dope

I recently watched Fight Night Round 4. This had inspired me to go back and watch some classic fights. One of the fights I watched was the George Forman vs. Muhammed Ali.

Ali has always amazed me. Not just by the fact that he was a amazing boxer, or how he was socially conscious. It's the fact that he won his fights by getting in his opponents' heads. Before fights he would taunt and insult the other fighters that were big hitters. This way he could play against their strengths turning them into weaknesses.

In his fight against Foreman it was no different. Almost all of Foreman's fight were won by knocking out the opponent by the fourth round. Ali, however, can take it the distance round after round. His goal would have to be to tire his opponent out, and survive till then. Ali was also older and came out of retirement, and Foreman was in his prime as the World Champion.

Before the fight it was found out that the ropes were too long for the ring. The fighters agreed to fight anyway since everyone was already there. Now here's where things get interesting. Ali found himself getting hit hard and against the ropes. Only he found out he could lean against the rope steadily and Foreman's hits wouldn't hit as hard, and then he realized he could fire shots off of it. His corner screamed at him for spending round after round against the ropes. However, Ali continued. Meanwhile (Ref's account), Ali was tautning Foremen, calling him names, laughing at him, and telling him "Is that all you got?" This caused Foremen to hit even harder, much to the dismay of Ali's trainer.

Ali was able to expend all of Foremen's energy to the point where he was not even throwing punches anymore--he was just pawing slowly at him. They called his movement "Sleepwalking" because he was so slow and unfocused. Ali played with him for one more round and ended up knocking him out.

Now I'm sure you're wondering why I'm giving you a play-by-play on boxing. It reminded me of a strategy that I've always used in my life against others who try to bring me down. I portray my strengths as weakness and weaknesses as strengths. People take you for what you portray to be more times than not. You don't have to be a sociopath to get people to take you for face value (though it's easier for us since we do it constantly). People are keen on boasting their strengths only to brag. It's natural. Your key lies in playing your strengths off as a weaknesses, luring you opponent into a false sense of security where they fall into a trap of playing your game. In the same way you play your weaknesses off as strengths, deterring them from attacking you where you have no game. Know yourself and know your enemy.

Participation time: I want to know from the readers if you've used this strategy? How successful was it for you? How did you pull it off and when did you decide to strike?

Game theory

A reader writes about game theory:


I find that I approach life through classic game theory (even before I learned what game theory was). Everything in life is a series of pro's and con's; a constant evaluation of the better outcome. "Love" is the same way, regardless of limerence. I see the pro's and con's of being with a particular person over another person, or over being alone and choose accordingly; approaching marriage in the same fashion, of course. I am engaged, actually; she loves me, and I see no outright "con's" to being with her, I know her (by the same measure of being able to "peer into her soul" as from the blog), and I am generally happy with her presence. While I am not aware that she knows of my sociopathy (although, she is quite familiar with with my agitation towards people, preference to solitude, quiet and observant nature, etc.), I am also sure that should she label me as such, she would not cause me undue stress. That, finally, is one of the major things (a keystone "pro," if you will), is that whatever event I am weighing, I will most always choose the event likely to cause me less hassle and stress.

For me, not only is Game Theory one fashion of handling life, but the concept of compartmentalization.  As many people have commented, trying to keep everything in order (in regards to the lies, half-truths, manipulations, "games," etc.) would be exceedingly difficult.  And it would be, if the sociopath's mind operated as a normal person's.  Everything in my mind is organized sort of like folders and folder groups that you might find in, say, Windows Explorer; everything has its place.  When a situation presents itself, or I am with a certain friend(s), I simply "open" up that folder and behave accordingly.  When one's mind is organized in such a way that no thought co-mingles with others, you don't have the problem of "remembering all of the lies," because you have everything you need neatly stored away, waiting to be accessed at the right time.  This same concept of compartmentalization applies in all walks of life, whether it be love, friendships, work, etc.  Another quality of this is enabling oneself to keep track of friend circles and ensuring that none of these circles cross in any way; this can allow for you to more easily adapt to any number of given situations per friend circle: a different personality, find another lover (in addition to, or instead of, one you may already have).  I find that I am in many different circles, but almost as a ghost; I can walk in and out of these circles almost unnoticed and not missed.  I was once described by a teacher as, "a loner who is never alone." 

Strategy

Strategy isn’t mysterious. And it isn’t just for politics or business or war. Strategy is nothing more or less than the art and science of getting what you want. In that sense, we are all inveterate strategists. Fortunately, most of us don’t want much. We want to have satisfying relationships with family and friends, to make ends meet, to have fun from time to time. Even in those mundane circumstances, however, we’re still strategizing, still trying to figure out how to get mom to back off or our girlfriend to give us more sex or our boss to give us a raise. We’re all, consciously or more often than not unconsciously, trying to get other people to give us what we want. Or put another way, we’re all after power of one sort or the other. We’re all strategizing whether we want to admit it or not.

Here are a few pointers I’ve found helpful in strategizing. First, decide what it is you want and why. Knowing why you want what you want could prove illuminating. You might even realize you don't want what you thought you wanted after all, which brings me to the second pointer. Decide if what you want is worth the price you’ll have to pay to get it, because nothing is free, not even love.

Third, and this pointer is for the empaths reading this, you must find a way to manage your emotions, especially guilt and fear. If you have to do something society tells you is "wrong," then so be it. Don’t waste your limited time wrestling with your conscience. Fear can be a powerful motivator, but it can also hamper your ability to act, and it can cloud your judgment if you don’t know how to see fear for what it is and deal with it. This point can be expanded to cover emotions in general. Being overwhelmed by emotion is very often an impediment to effective strategizing.

Fourth, assess your resources. What resources can you use to accomplish your goal? And I’m not just talking about money. Intelligence, good looks, talents and so on are all resources.

Fifth, assess the context. What’s the historical and/or psychological background, if you will? What are the ‘political’ circumstances? And if you think this doesn’t apply to areas like romance, think again. In the case of romance, knowing your target’s psychological background, for instance, can play a critical role in determining how you’re going to seduce them. And politics, practically speaking, is just another word for strategizing, which boils down to people trying to get what they want. So you can see how this could apply to relationships. How do the people around you play politics, or attempt to get what they want? What games do they play or what tactics do they consistently employ? That knowledge can prove useful in your own strategizing.

Sixth, remember that our goals very often revolve around people. You need to be able to manage them, to push and pull them in the directions you want them to go in. This is why the sociopath’s innate ability to read others is advantageous. For instance, pretending to have suffered the same kinds of wounds is often an effective way to find out where another person’s buttons are, which comes in handy when you need to push them.

Seventh, pick your battles. Knowing what you want and why will clarify which battles you want to fight and which you want to avoid. The above is only a beginning. There are a variety of sources you can mine that will help you become successful strategists, from Epictetus to Machiavelli, from Sun Tzu to Robert Greene.

Why would anyone want to become good at getting what they want? The answer is simple: death. All of us, the sociopath and the saint alike, must die. Life is short and often hard. Go after what you want and don’t stop until you get it.