Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Overconfidence

Confidence is an amazing thing. Because appearances are essentially all that matter, especially in circumstances of information asymmetry, confidence is an incredibly important for any leader or successful individual. The hazard of confidence, as this New York Times article by famed behavioral psychologist/economist, are when the individual starts believing his own inflated stories. Here were the more poigant parts:
The confidence we experience as we make a judgment is not a reasoned evaluation of the probability that it is right. Confidence is a feeling, one determined mostly by the coherence of the story and by the ease with which it comes to mind, even when the evidence for the story is sparse and unreliable. The bias toward coherence favors overconfidence. An individual who expresses high confidence probably has a good story, which may or may not be true.

When a compelling impression of a particular event clashes with general knowledge, the impression commonly prevails. And this goes for you, too. The confidence you will experience in your future judgments will not be diminished by what you just read, even if you believe every word.

True intuitive expertise is learned from prolonged experience with good feedback on mistakes. You are probably an expert in guessing your spouse’s mood from one word on the telephone; chess players find a strong move in a single glance at a complex position; and true legends of instant diagnoses are common among physicians. To know whether you can trust a particular intuitive judgment, there are two questions you should ask: Is the environment in which the judgment is made sufficiently regular to enable predictions from the available evidence? The answer is yes for diagnosticians, no for stock pickers. Do the professionals have an adequate opportunity to learn the cues and the regularities? The answer here depends on the professionals’ experience and on the quality and speed with which they discover their mistakes. Anesthesiologists have a better chance to develop intuitions than radiologists do. Many of the professionals we encounter easily pass both tests, and their off-the-cuff judgments deserve to be taken seriously. In general, however, you should not take assertive and confident people at their own evaluation unless you have independent reason to believe that they know what they are talking about. Unfortunately, this advice is difficult to follow: overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion.

I've mentioned several times that I believe one of the primary practical differences between a narcissist and a sociopath is that a sociopath does not believe his own lies. Sociopaths are able to lie to others and also lie to themselves, but some compartmentalized version of them will always hold on to the truth, lest they make some of these mistakes of overconfidence or underestimation that are so apparent in our brother narcissists. I fully agree with the article, though, that the only real way to avoid the perils of overconfidence is to have some touchstone that allows you to verify the validity of a particular belief. For me, I like to have people around me whose opinions I trust. If they tell me something is or not so, I have to basically take them on their word, like playing a game of mental blind man's bluff where I'm being guided by one or more participants. Luckily I learned how to trust people in my early 20's, otherwise I don't know what I would do.

85 comments:

  1. white text for the loss

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  2. I think it is very fortunate, indeed, that you have people to trust. I had one such person, who is not here, anymore. You are very fortunate in having this and I can tell that you know that. I would like to ask who these people are.

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  3. XD ahahehehauehuaehuea....bisan saon pa ninyo dili jud ko mut.uo ahaha

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  4. Safe pa ko? aheheee

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  5. my browser didn't show the text but when I did a copy and paste it showed up

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  6. For me, I like to have people around me whose opinions I trust. If they tell me something is or not so, I have to basically take them on their word, like playing a game of mental blind man's bluff where I'm being guided by one or more participants.

    So is there a lot of vascillation that goes on in the sociopath's head? I don't see Ukan talk about it. (Maybe his wife is his person he goes to if he can't decide how to think about a situation.)

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  7. it's not confidence that you guys have. it's arrogance. there is a difference.

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  8. arrogance -

    overbearing pride evidenced by a superior manner toward inferiors.

    confidence -

    The state of feeling certain about the truth of something.

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  9. if you care about nothing. you have nothing to lose.

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  10. psychopaths in the mediaNovember 2, 2011 at 6:06 AM

    Three teenage boys, 12, 14 and 16 years old in Guadalupe County, TX got their sick twisted jollies off of torturing a small dog to death! This crime is just beyond horrific!

    The walked into Stephanie Tavere’s yard and stole her beloved little Pomeranian mix puppy, Tobey, and took it to an abandoned house where they cruelly and mercilessly tortured it to death! This little dog, who had probably never known anything but gentle kindness, caring and pampering was repeatedly thrown out of a second story window then when it’s legs were broken they hung it from a tree and beat it like a pinata then decapitated it! There was also evidence that the dog was burned while it was still alive!

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  11. Overconfidence is Hindsight's insult flung towards a flopped ego. It doesn't exist. You can't mrasure correct levels of confidence. All you can do is prepare.

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  12. Narcissists are only minimally capable of seeing a point of view beyond their own. They lack empathy. And to make matters worse, they believe that the rest of us are obsessed with thinking about them as well. This is part of the reason that Narcissists get so grumpy when they feel disrespected. The ability to imagine our perspective is simply not there.

    Here’s an example. Several years ago, my friend Allen bought a business with his good friend Roberta. While they both invested the same amount of money, Roberta had no intention of being involved in the business; she just wanted to be called the CEO. She liked the title. The corporation attorney suggested otherwise, and Roberta had a meltdown. I know some of you are thinking, “How can that be?” Trust me, it can. This is a true story. Her emails were vitriolic, verbally abusive and just plain mean. Allen apologized, and agreed to let Roberta have the title, but the damage was done. Roberta was inconsolable. It is impossible for her to understand that Allen meant her no harm, and she has been verbally expressing her anger, both publicly and privately, for close to four years.

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  13. This is part of the reason that Narcissists get so grumpy when they feel disrespected.

    Some of the regulars do this to one another -ahem.

    Sadomasochists have clubs where they're forced to check their rage or be they're thrown out. And they call it "playing" Do they come home from their meetings with less raging impulses with their spouses?


    I agree with whoever said a lot cops were a pack of narcs..
    There's a fine line between "good guy" and bad guy in those types of jobs. --lots of people who have carte blanch to control others-people in power- express rage. And it's called bullying ABUSE of POWER, self appointed or not.

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  14. Roberta couldn't let it go.

    I'd be curious to know if she felt disrespected in the household and used this incident fuel rage at any other stuff.

    People who do a lot of angry letter writing always seem to amuse me.

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  15. stop pot n kettle whining ptroll.

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  16. Oh scume, roberta wasn't the spouse.

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  17. BORED BOREd BorEd n boring!

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  18. 606

    I can't hear that crap. It's too disturbing. Did they get juve?

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  19. "onfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion."

    wrongdiagnosis,anybody?

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  20. :) LOL... I just saw the following...

    MaryK, no idea when someone posted all that on my behalf. Hilarious. None of that is true. AMusing though. I'd like to have read it, do you remember the date? Plus, I know someone refers to me as Scelli. I don't, I go by Sceli.

    MK said yesterday:
    Scelli, I thought about pulling out your past comments and going into how you failed at competing in the corporate world, about how you get panic attacks when you stand up to your superiors, even though you think youre better than them, about how you dated a murderer to feel powerful when you took control of him, and about your conflicting morals and how you use them to your advantage, but then I r

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  21. I took early retirement and my wife is making it clear she does not want me around. I don't know what I am feeling other than anger and depression, which I feel all the time.

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  22. I read the rest of yesterday. Saw the remarks on the guy I gave a hug.

    The guy was a basic homeless, except tall and healthy looking, a touch cuddly, not skinny or dried out.

    I have to say no matter what a guy licks I typically do get excited, but this lick scene was a shocker only because it was unimaginable to me that one would do that.

    I see that hugging the guy stood out for you guys. I thought nothing when I wrote that, it was just a fact. My hug was not a full one, more like one arm hug because the other arm had all the books, etc. After seeing the remarks from you I regret that I did not give him a full squeeze feel those boobies kind of hug~.

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  23. I'd err on the side of overconfidence than lack of it anytime. It is amazing how far can one go when feeling confident and calm.

    Men typically are overconfident and women under. Americans overconfident, the rest of the world under.

    Most underconfident nations: Australia and New Zealand 9relative to where their deserved confidence should be).

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  24. With his family surrounding him, Steve Jobs' last words were: "Oh wow. Oh wow. Oh wow. "

    Something is funny about this...

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  25. MK and Bunny:

    Sorry about the Halloween bash. I just cannot resist sometimes. Did give me a high, though. Raw power of attacking an open wound. Yikes, so below me~

    Anyway, my goal on this site is to see and accept the differences and use knowledge in my best interest. I learn by comparison and I have some common sides with both socios and beepers (all of whom have quite a bit of narcissistic traits, like I do).

    So, once n a while I may attack, and once in a while you may attack. No big deal.

    One time that I was impressed with the bull shit detector UKan seemed to have. I now see that he basically thinks everybody is constantly bullshitting. So, in reality his detector only works just because in the fight the other side proves themselves to be a bullshitter or not. There is a saying you know others like you know yourself. I hardly went by others are bullshitting in the past, and that was not a great thinking process. I see the opposite in you guys, and I see the need for improvement from this 'everyone' to 'noone' is bullshitting strategies of yours and mine, respectively.

    As for the Halloween Bash. The right defense would have been 'What could I do, I fell in love with my wife upon first sight." kind of response. Instead UKan readily accepted the charge of used and tried to bring me down by 'salvage' when he knew nothing about me. See, that's bullshit kind of attack.

    And, you, MK, I hope you learned that you should not share your love story with people, because it comes across as your bragging and your man's ???, no idea what the proper adjective would be. I'm sure some anons could take a shot at that better than I could.

    Enough said...

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  26. Georgios Papandreou; narcissist or not?

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  27. Ugh, Sceli; could you try to draw less attention to your depressingly sucky self?

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  28. "And, you, MK, I hope you learned that you should not share your love story with people, because it comes across as your bragging "

    and because it's boring.

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  29. anon,
    I appreciate your attention. It means the world to me~.
    What color is my underwear?

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  30. stfu "ritards"

    'hangover' reference for those who are interested.

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  31. I'm with you Bella. Stories like 606 make my heart hurt incredibly. I have so little compassion for strangers, but animals? Leave the poor creatures alone.

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  32. Sceli, I'm attracted to men and I have a lot of male friends....But getting sexually and romantically close to men disgusts me...I'm not a bitter sexist...I hope i'm not painted as that...I just can't see myself feeling comfortable around men in that way despite the fact that i'm attracted to them...If you have any questions i'm happy to asnwer and thank you for taking an interest :)

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  33. Sceli you are delusional. My wife attacked you, so don't turn this around like you were just going on the offensive. You were defending yourself because you told us about you being the only kid not beaten in your family and she said you sounded like this narcissistic girl we met who had the same situation. Being treated different and not being abused in a abusive family is actually one of the factors listed for narcissistic personality disorder so she is actually on point.

    There's no need to apolagize for making a fool out of yourself. Many people do here. Many narcissists do. You are yet another 'Goodpath'. You came in here months ago and people ragged on you and your defensive pose of how you will only attack this person under this criteria just like the rest of the wanna be Dexter Morgan's that have come here. You are not anything new. You are so scared of conflict in real life that you have panic attacks, yet you come in here like you are fearless? Please save it cunt. Half the time you aren't making sense like Gagreflex or Soulful, the other half you are just embarrassing yourself.

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  34. @ Haven and Bella

    I have a huge soft spot for animals too. Who could want to hurt such cute, fuzzy things?

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  35. Is SW a professional wrestling site?

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  36. How is the beautiful and gracious Sweet Cheeks today?

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  37. hanging in the Frank...

    I am not used to being complimented in such a manner, I don't know how to respond.

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  38. I would be lying if i said it didn't make be smile just a little bit though ;)

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  39. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBvBvtZ7EuE&feature=related


    Ladies, look at this man. Rob Thomas

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  40. @Sweet, I try to act like I am a cool, but I'm not. I am very shy and afraid with woman, especially beautiful and sexy woman. I am glad that I can make you happy, even if that is all I can ever have with a woman like you.

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  41. Keep that sweetness and I am sure you will be just fine, Frank. There are many women out there who would love nothing more than to feel treasured by a man and told such things.

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  42. Here socios, have some fun with this guy:
    http://youranonnews.tumblr.com/post/12246006233/judge-william-adams-beats-daughter-for-using-the

    717 Magnolia Street Rockport, TX 78382
    Market value: $150,100

    Home: (361) 729-3452
    Cell phone: (361) 729-3452

    Work:
    Aransas County Sheriff’s Office: Sheriff William “Bill” Mills
    301 N. Live Oak St.Rockport, TX 78382


    Phone numbers:

    (361) 729-2222
    (361) 790-0100
    (361) 790-0138

    Enjoy.

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  43. almost forgot

    Work email: wadams@aransascounty.org

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  44. @Sweet Cheeks, I have to tell you something. I was always slow. I could never keep up with people. I never wanted to tell anyone, so tried to act tough.

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  45. Thank you lover. I haven't even had the chance to read her who,e comment. I was amused that she mentioned how excited she got to "feel vicious"with her "Halloween bash" I particularly loved how quickly she backed down on Halloween and how she changed her nervousness to excitement in her mind. She even gets a fight or flight response when she tries to come forward online. And she didn't even say anything impressive. And we can so easily relate it back to the date she first started talking about herself. Like how she tries to justify her over anxiety by readings she's done on people who get adrenaline boosts when they kill people. Some people have anxiety issues. Some people have adrenaline addictions. They're different in that your fight or flight response almost always chooses flight. That's why you were "the good girl" because you were too afraid to stand for anything then against your parents, and too busy letting your siblings be the scape goat but you aren't special, you've just convinced yourself that everything you've done was the best route possible. You've blinded yourself to your faults. And you've raised your view of yourself so dramatically that you think even your feeble nervousness is a strength. A convenient post to discuss over confidence and lying to yourself.

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  46. Anonymous, that person hasn't even said anything yet have they? Why would anyone hear attack them?

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  47. Sceli, I think its interesting how you tried to deflect by saying it must be a different sceli. The way you clung to the detail is amusingly deflective and fearful.

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  48. @ Frank

    That's actually really common. We are all given a hand of cards in life and we just have to do the best we can with those cards. Don't let your issues hold you back.

    I dated a guy who was a little slower and acted tough for the same reason. He was very special to me.

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  49. Kirwlin, are you a virgin, then?

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  50. Thanks Sweet Cheeks. You are pretty inside, too.

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  51. Yeah, I'd agree with the anon who said 'boring' about the couple. Imagine being newly wed and spending your time on the Internet with you spouse. Yikes.

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  52. Narcissists want weddings, not marriage

    http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/01/living/wedding-marriage-splits/index.html?iref=obnetwork

    "The wedding is, on the one hand, a healthy way of making a public commitment to each other and acknowledging that you're part of a web of family and friends that helps to nourish the relationship," said Stephen Fabick, a consulting psychologist who specializes in conflict resolution. "But on the other hand, it preps like a cancer, where the focus is on the show and not the long-term or reality of the relationship."

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  53. She's so desperate for attention she went and humped some homeless fiend that was licking mustard off paper plates out of the rubbish bin. How low will you sink Sceli?

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  54. @haven

    why would you have more compassion for animals more so than strangers? that is flawed logic and downright selfish. they are just animals.

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  55. What is your point, OCD much?

    Instead of beating a dead horse, go beat your meat Ukan.''Your fucking juvinile.

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  56. "Here socios, have some fun with this guy:
    http://youranonnews.tumblr.com/post/12246006233/judge-william-adams-beats-daughter-for-using-the

    717 Magnolia Street Rockport, TX 78382
    Market value: $150,100

    Home: (361) 729-3452
    Cell phone: (361) 729-3452

    Work:
    Aransas County Sheriff’s Office: Sheriff William “Bill” Mills
    301 N. Live Oak St.Rockport, TX 78382


    Phone numbers:

    (361) 729-2222
    (361) 790-0100
    (361) 790-0138

    Enjoy."

    Why? If anything I respect this guy.

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  57. No, that whole thing with her hugging that random guy is really strange to say the least.

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  58. most of those 'anonymous' people fancy themselves as sociopaths. yet are extremely sensitive to corruption and any form of animal abuse. there was a kid who tortured his cat on film once, for fun. anonymous sent the kid death threat after death threat. hardly sociopathic.

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  59. I'm sick of hearing the same shit over and over again.

    Like I said, what's the point?

    It actually makes people stronger to keep going at them, they just don't care after the second time.

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  60. i walked by a beggar woman yesterday and when she put her empty coffee cup out i put a piece of paper in it lol

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  61. LOL @ anon. did she notice?

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  62. BEND OVER TEH BAYD

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  63. probably. she wasn't going to anything anyway. she was pretty sickly looking and she had a baby.

    i wasn't going to do it to a guy, he probably would have chased me.

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  64. BEND OVER TEH BAYDNovember 2, 2011 at 6:30 PM

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wl9y3SIPt7o

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  65. that dad is a socio

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  66. Yes, Seli..I am..I find it difficult to say the least..

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  67. ——–Puff… Puff & Pass!——————
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    _____________________0____________________

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  68. ———-Puff, Puff, Pass !————–
    _______________}}_________
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    ____________{{{{{{________
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  69. now thats how to spam the right way - bitches

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  70. "Georgios Papandreou; narcissist or not?"

    i'd say every politician is very narcissistic, but only a handful would be pathological narcissists. i doubt any are psychopaths. psychopaths love power and authority, but they prefer to pull the strings behind the curtains.

    obviously you cannot see the obama's or sarkozy's true colors, as they wouldn't be able to act out in the social setting they are placed.

    however, do i think obama or sarkozy could indirectly murder people just like gaddafi did? of course i do. you'd have to be dim to think otherwise.

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  71. excuse me. i meant every president or leader, not politician.

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  72. Do you think this guy is innocent Or a manipulative sociopath?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hXym5KaORA

    It seems that 2011 is shaping up to be the year that child killers are released. First Casey Anthony gets off then the West Memphis 3 are released. What’s next? Will Wayne Williams be released?

    Let me reiterate on why I think the West Memphis 3 are guilty. The first reason is that to me the West Memphis 3 fit the profile of school shooters. If they were born just 5 or 10 years later I think they would have been prolific school shooters. Damien Echols is their Eric Harris and Jessie Misskelley and Jason Baldwin are the Dylan Klebold-like sycophants. The second reason is that Damien Echols was a known animal abuser who not only bragged about killing animals but a witness even testified about how Echols violently killed a sick dog. Next is the fact that during testimony Echols testified how he would have committed the killings if he was the killer. Kind of like that book OJ Simpson almost put out called “If I Did It”. You’ll notice that those details were left out of the ‘documentaries’. Speaking of OJ much like that case there is no ‘real killer’. The West Memphis 3 supporters can’t decide if it’s the mysterious Mr. Bojangles, Mark Byers who is now a supporter of the WM3, or Terry Hobbs. It depends on which one of the supporters you ask and how well they’ve been paying attention. Notice I made no mention of anything even remotely occult related.

    Much like other teen killers that I’ve posted about Echiols has always maintained that it’s everybody’s fault but his that he was in jail. “Arkansas is too Christian, we look different, wah wah wah.” But Damien Echols is one hell of a showman because he has just about everybody fooled.

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  73. he has weird eyes.

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  74. In early February 1993, three months before the murders, Damien Echols applied for Social Security disability benefits, claiming that mental illness left him unable to work. The application form required him to list hospitalizations and diagnoses. Here’s what Echols wrote down:

    http://wm3truth.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/damien-echols-social-security-application.jpg

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  75. “Everyone will pay because everyone is too stupid to open their eyes. This is the final time and I am the new messiah. My body is changing but that medicine is making it happen a lot more slowly than normal. I am outgrowing my skin. I am eating packs of sugar and Kool-Aid to give my body extra energy it needs to make its change. Soon people will be able to know I am the Christ. I always knew I was different from other children.”

    -Damien Echols

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  76. watch this

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iv9L81KugdI

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  77. In the 18 months prior to the murders, Damien Echols was arrested for trespassing, sexual misconduct and committed to a psychiatric hospital for the second last time.

    He was suspended from school seven times the year before, once for lighting a fire in the back of class, the last time because he clawed the face of Shane Divilbiss, a romantic rival for the affections of Deanna Holcomb, who was arrested with Damien a few months later.

    Damien’s last commitment, while living with the recently relocated family in Aloha Oregon was caused by Echols threatening to slit his mother’s throat and drink her blood, and subsequently eat his father.

    Pam and Eddie Hutchison were so concerned about Damien’s behavior and his threats to them, they refused to allow him back into the home and sent him on a bus back to Arkansas.

    The Hutchison’s moved back to West Memphis 6 weeks before the murders and Damien moved back in. Damien is suspected to have burned down his Father Andy Jack Echols garage and part of his trailer according to his friend Chris Littrell. Pam Echols Hutchison Metcalf is currently on disability for depression.

    According to Damien’s OWN application for Social Security disability benefits, he was suffering from homicidal, sociopathic and suicidal ideations, manic depression and schizophrenia:

    The exhibit known as the “500”, as in 500 pages of medical records tells the story the prosecution could not, due to the exclusion of “prior bad acts”. There was great concern about Damien’s escalating propensity for violence, so much so his probation officer removed the dog and cat skulls from his bedroom and expressed and great concern for acts against others. He felt the natural evolution of his violence was going to be humans 18 months prior to the murders.

    Damien was told at the hospital that he could be the next Ted Bundy, he replied I always knew

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