Mathematical modeling of serial killer murders

Two separate readers sent me links here and here to the recent announcement of a mathematical model looking at the behavior of serial killers:

Mikhail Simkin and Vwani Roychowdhury analyzed the pattern of a serial killer, Ukrainian-born Andrei Chikatilo, and found that it correlated with their predicted pattern of neuronal firing in the brain.

In the 1990s, Chikatilo confessed to the murder of 56 people over 12 years. (He was executed in 1994.) When charted on a timeline, the murders seem to follow a pattern known in mathematical terms as a "Devil's staircase."

The intervals between the murders follow a power law, with the killer seemingly commiting murder when the neuronal excitation in his brain exceeds a certain threshold, the researchers hypothesize.

"We cannot expect that the killer commits murder right at the moment when neural excitation reaches a certain threshold," they write. "He needs time to plan and prepare his crime. So we assume that he commits murder after the neural excitation was over threshold for [a] certain period. ... Another assumption that we make is that a murder exercises a sedative effect on the killer, causing neural excitation to fall below the threshold."

In other words, a new murder would be more likely than the average murder rate immediately after a killing, and less likely than the average when time has passed, according to the analysis.

Isn't the world full of wonderful things?  I have always felt that there could be very simple, elegant explanations to everything -- even something as complicated as human behavior.  I can't wait until Google is able to model everyone's mind and mob mentality and then we can truly understand everything there is to know about human nature.

Same sex cheating

I am always sort of charmed to read textbook examples of sociopaths, particularly when they include personality traits that aren't actually really emphasized (or even included) in most textbooks, like ambiguous sexuality.  These descriptions are selections from a reader about her and her boyfriend (sorry for the choppy editing):

I'm uber reasonable, I like to travel a lot, I like to experience different cultures, most of my boyfriends have been foreign, they bring something different to the table and I value that, its interesting to see life from a different point of view and hear different perspectives. I am always right ;-) but there is not ever just one right answer and I like to have my world expanded by hearing other versions. I like that my bloke presents yet another perspective on life.

Re the sexuality thing, I'm pretty certain that he is "creeping on the down low." There have just been too many little incidences. Also he is always very good humoured every time I imply that he shags blokes. I'm quite sure that most men would be quite annoyed if it were not the case. 

I was chatting to a girl a few weeks ago who works with male sex workers, she said that something like 80% of these guys did not consider themselves to be gay, most have wives or girlfriends, many with established families, I found it really interesting how it seems that these guys are so able to completely separate parts of their lives so that one has absolutely no bearing on the other, quite an enviable skill. I'm very fortunate, have lived abroad, travelled a lot, good job blah blah blah, but there are things that I wish I had done. I wonder if a sociopath is more able to achieve all these goals without some of the constraints life often presents. (does that make sense?) (that's not to say that all these guys are sociopaths or that all sociopaths are shagging both sexes).

I do not want him to think that I am stupid and that I just don’t know what he is up to. Obviously I don’t know the fine details, who, where, when etc. but I know that in general he shags around and for some reason I feel the need to make sure that he knows that I know, and that I accept it as my choice, not that I’m some stupid blonde that he is managing to fool. It’s petty really on my part, I’m sure he knows that I’m not stupid (I hope!) but I just need that confirmation from him, which obviously he can’t give without admitting what he gets up to – it ain’t going to happen.

It’s like I have an internal conflict going on, I suppose it’s to do with society and how we are brought up to expect people to behave etc. Society tells me that relationships are supposed to be monogamous, open and honest. But I know in reality that is not how it works, I myself cheated on my long term boyfriend, 5 times in fact, and it was never anything to do with him. I really did love him, had I thought he would find out and get hurt I would never have done it, but I knew he wouldn’t and it was fun so I did it.  And so I have a conflict between what I think I am supposed to expect from him, what he delivers, and what I find I am able to accept in reality.

I accept it because I have done it and I’m not a sociopath, so I am in no position to tell him off for doing the same when he is ‘programmed’ to do so. I have also always known what he is like and allow him back in my life on that basis, I cannot therefore start complaining later on down the line. And at the end of the day I just like him being about, so I balance it and have the occasional spat at him. It will run its course.

As I mentioned, I caught him hitting on a guy, and obviously he has denied it since, at the time he had taken a lot of MDMA, coke and alcohol. I read on your blog that sociopaths often adopt a kind of code to live by. For my bloke being gay is a big no no culturally, so do you think that he maybe adopts a no gay code to live by day to day but that under the influence of a lot substances it slipped? I’m just looking for excuses here aren’t I, so I don’t have to face facts right? Which is weird because I have dated a couple of bisexual guys in the past, I guess it’s that not knowing thing. You get a lot of that dating a sociopath!

Sociopath = Dream maker

I have said that I often find empaths to be unpredictably irrational, whether they're sticking screwdrivers into their lover's necks or placing the blame for the negative results of their own greed, fear, and short-sightedness on psychopaths.  A reader mentioned that her sociopathic boyfriend also gets frustrated about what empaths choose to get all worked up about:

My bloke has this great analogy which I think he applies to every aspect of his life - "this guy wants to sell his car for £500, this guy wants to buy a car for £1,000, so I buy the car for £500, this guy is happy, and I sell it for £1,000 and this guy is also happy, and I've made £500 so I'm happy, everyone is happy. So why do the two guys have to poke around and find out about each other, now they both feel that they have been cheated and now no one is happy." This makes me smile, you cannot argue against it really, its very true and in fact the way that pretty much all business is run and how the world keeps turning. The major flaw being human nature, and that people do poke around and do get hurt, life would be so much easier if we didn't. Some aspects of sociopathy seem quite idealistic really.

I actually think the current obsession with the 1% and greed illustrates this well.  Do people really feel like they are being ripped off?  Yes, some people are profiting off our society/economy more than others, but the truth is that everyone is made better.  Corporations are not evil.  They make everyone's lives better.  A rising tide will float all ships, and yet people can't help but be upset that some are floating higher than others.  

Specifically in the case of sociopaths, I would even go so far as to say that most people who interact with most sociopaths are better off than they otherwise would be.  Sociopaths are the grease making the world go round.  We are fulfilling fantasies.  We are arbitrageurs.  We are sometimes the only ones listening to, caring about, and/or providing for your deepest wants and needs.  Of course everything comes at a price.  Is that what all the fuss is about? That the price is too high? Because that's an entirely different sort of complaint (really more like a whine).

Song: Use the force

This is probably the closest thing I have to a personal anthem.  I always listen to it when I want to turn up my go-go-super-sociopath.



I must believe
I can do anything
I can heal anyone
I must believe
I am the wind (yeah)
I am the sea
I am the wind
I am the sea
I am the sun
I can be anyone
Oh this world is mine (this world is mine)
For all of time (for all of time)
I can turn any stone
Call any place my home
I can do anything
I know I'm gonna get myself together (yeah)
Use the force
I know I'm gonna work it out
Use the force
I know I'm gonna get myself ahead (yeah)
Use the force
Use the force
I can go eagle high
Circling in the sky
Learn to live my life (no)
I don't need to strife
I must believe (I must believe. I must believe)
I'm a rocketman (I must believe. I must believe)
I'm a superstar (I must believe. I must believe)
I can be anyone
I can step beyond
All of my boundaries (boundaries)
It won't be hard for me
To feel what there must be
I know I'm gonna get myself together (yeah)
Use the force
I know I'm gonna work it out
Use the force
I know I'm gonna get myself ahead (yeah)
Use the force
Use the force
I can do it
I can do anything
Anything Anything

How to detect when someone is lying

Everybody has some ability to detect whether people are lying or not, though some of us are better at it than others. Psychologist Paul Ekman has developed a tool that he believes will improve that ability for everyone. Ekman is a leading authority on reading microexpressions (unconscious facial expressions that in a split second can reveal the owner's true thoughts) to detect lies. His work has been dramatized by the American Television show Lie to Me. I haven't had the time to use the microexpression training tool, but apparently it takes only an hour. It's available at www.PaulEkman.com.

I think the ability to read microexpressions would be more useful against empaths than sociopaths. Why? Because sociopaths have a less rigid sense of self, they are able to actually believe their own lies much better than empaths are. For instance, I am able to compartmentalize quite well -- just like the protagonist in the movie Memento, I'm able to tell myself lies that I can actually believe. Once I believe a lie, any microexpressions seen on my face would seem to support the lie, not undercut it. Empaths, on the other hand, seem to need a stricter sense of identity. Although I'm sure they unconsciously lie to themselves all the time and microexpressions wouldn't be able to detect those lies, they seem much less able to consciously lie to themselves to the point of believing the truth. In those situations, the ability to read microexpressions would be a very useful tool against a lying empath.